09.02.2012
NZD: New Zealand Dollar stands still in anticipation of new information
At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar almost does not move on Thursday being in the very narrow range and waiting for catalysts.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going up in the positive area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8360, the pair will go to 0.8370 and 0.8390.Consolidation near current levels is probable.
It became known today that unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive, indicating that employment sector, being one of the supportive factors for the economy, will be able to guarantee stability even in case of rpessimistic external influence.
According to the report of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the regulator is ready to act if conditions, appropriate for his intervention will be created. In case if the slump of 2008 will be repeated, the RBNZ has a number of measures to avoid the slump of economy in the global scale. It is all about the level of liquidity in the banks. The document was submitted to authorities in December; however the contents of it have been made public only last week.
Activity index in the service sector of New Zealand fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, positive factor of the index has already been incorporated into the price. Consumer confidence index ANZ fell to 108.4 points in December against 109.0 points earlier. Therefore, Europe and its problems have a strong impact on Australian economy, as well as on other remote counties; forecast sare too difficult to make. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q in Q3(+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. Significant support to the economy of New Zealand was provided by Rugby Championship which attracted a lot of investment into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5%y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP had almost stopped growing, but revived later. Most likely the index will be weaker in Q4.
At the meeting in the end of January, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the minimal level of 2.5% per annum. According to follow-up comments of the regulator this decision is reasonable because world economic risks are still preserved despite internal stability in New Zealand. RBNZ emphasized that inflationary pressureis being steadily contained; however NZD growth negatively affects earnings of exporters.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going up in the positive area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8360, the pair will go to 0.8370 and 0.8390.Consolidation near current levels is probable.
It became known today that unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive, indicating that employment sector, being one of the supportive factors for the economy, will be able to guarantee stability even in case of rpessimistic external influence.
According to the report of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the regulator is ready to act if conditions, appropriate for his intervention will be created. In case if the slump of 2008 will be repeated, the RBNZ has a number of measures to avoid the slump of economy in the global scale. It is all about the level of liquidity in the banks. The document was submitted to authorities in December; however the contents of it have been made public only last week.
Activity index in the service sector of New Zealand fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, positive factor of the index has already been incorporated into the price. Consumer confidence index ANZ fell to 108.4 points in December against 109.0 points earlier. Therefore, Europe and its problems have a strong impact on Australian economy, as well as on other remote counties; forecast sare too difficult to make. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q in Q3(+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. Significant support to the economy of New Zealand was provided by Rugby Championship which attracted a lot of investment into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5%y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP had almost stopped growing, but revived later. Most likely the index will be weaker in Q4.
At the meeting in the end of January, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the minimal level of 2.5% per annum. According to follow-up comments of the regulator this decision is reasonable because world economic risks are still preserved despite internal stability in New Zealand. RBNZ emphasized that inflationary pressureis being steadily contained; however NZD growth negatively affects earnings of exporters.